Progressive Misses Q3 EPS, Florida Credit Hits Profit (PGR)

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Progressive Misses Q3 EPS, Florida Credit Hits Profit (PGR) despite reporting strong premium growth for the third quarter of 2025. The company reported earnings of $4.45 per share, falling short of analyst expectations. This miss was significantly impacted by a $950 million policyholder credit expense for customers in Florida due to the state’s excess profit statute. Progressive’s net premiums earned still grew 14% year-over-year, confirming continued strong market penetration.

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Read the Full Meal:

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) announced its third quarter 2025 financial results on October 15, missing analyst expectations on both earnings per share and revenue. The insurer reported adjusted EPS of $4.45, significantly below the analyst consensus of approximately $5.05. Progressive’s net income for the quarter still grew 12% to $2.62 billion, compared to the same period last year. However, the results included a major charge of $950 million for a policyholder credit in Florida, directly affecting the bottom line. This credit is required under a Florida statute limiting the underwriting profit an insurer can earn on personal auto insurance over a three-year period. The news caused a negative market reaction because the profit miss overshadowed the impressive 14% growth in net premiums earned.

Profitability and Market Share Trends

• Capital allocation: Progressive will distribute the $950 million Florida credit as a cash refund or credit in early 2026.
• Growth drivers: Policy growth remains robust, increasing 12% year-over-year across the company, with Direct Auto growing 17%.
• Margins: The quarterly combined ratio worsened slightly to 89.5%, though it remains well below the company’s 96.0 target.
• Risks: Monthly results highlight volatility, as the September combined ratio soared to 100.4%.

Quick links

• Official source: September 2025 Results press release
• IR hub: events & presentations · filings
• Our coverage:
  Progressive Dips 5 Buy Or Bail PGR Stock · Progressive News Hub · Latest: Progressive Stock Rating Split After Q3 Miss (PGR)

Why this can matter for PGR holders

• Continuity: The quarterly combined ratio remaining below 96.0 confirms Progressive’s ability to manage underwriting profitability.
• Cycle timing: Robust policy growth shows the company is successfully taking market share despite raising rates.
• Multiple support: The earnings miss was due to a non-recurring regulatory charge, not core underwriting failure, which reassures investors.

What to watch next

1. Official filing: Look for the Q3 10-Q filing in early November for a deeper segment breakdown.
2. Next event: Watch for the Q3 earnings conference call on November 4 for management commentary.
3. Board / governance / roadmap: Monitor the effect of inflation and tariffs on future loss cost trends and pricing strategies.

Mini FAQ

Why did Progressive miss the EPS consensus estimate?
The EPS missed the consensus primarily due to a large, one-time $950 million charge for a policyholder credit in Florida.

Is Progressive still growing its customer base?
Yes, the company’s total policies in force grew 12% year-over-year to 38.1 million as of September 30, 2025.