Johnson & Johnson Earnings and 2025 Outlook

Johnson & Johnson reported 4.3% revenue growth for 2024, excluding COVID-19 vaccine sales, with guidance suggesting slower 1.7% growth in 2025 due to foreign exchange impacts and challenges like Stelara’s biosimilar competition. We estimate Stelara sales will drop by over $3 billion in 2025, impacting overall performance. Despite this, J&J’s fair value estimate remains $164 per share, with 5%-7% annual revenue growth guidance from 2025-30 offering long-term optimism. Key areas to watch include dominance in innovative medicine, particularly with multiple myeloma treatments and new drug launches like TAR-200, and competitiveness in medtech through advancements like robotic surgery systems. Litigation risks, including talc lawsuits, also loom over the company’s valuation, with hearings expected to begin soon.